Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 6.671222e-05 0.000080 0.000094 0.000111 0.000129 0.000149 0.000172
2025-02-16 5.317630e-05 0.000071 0.000092 0.000117 0.000147 0.000180 0.000220
2025-02-23 4.348254e-05 0.000063 0.000087 0.000117 0.000153 0.000196 0.000248
2025-03-02 3.399205e-05 0.000054 0.000079 0.000113 0.000155 0.000206 0.000270
2025-03-09 2.775378e-05 0.000048 0.000074 0.000111 0.000158 0.000216 0.000291
2025-03-16 2.322485e-05 0.000043 0.000071 0.000111 0.000163 0.000229 0.000315
2025-03-23 1.996101e-05 0.000040 0.000069 0.000112 0.000169 0.000243 0.000340
2025-03-30 1.666447e-05 0.000036 0.000066 0.000111 0.000173 0.000253 0.000361
2025-04-06 1.351986e-05 0.000032 0.000062 0.000108 0.000173 0.000260 0.000377
2025-04-13 1.202783e-05 0.000031 0.000061 0.000110 0.000181 0.000275 0.000405
2025-04-20 9.428809e-06 0.000027 0.000057 0.000106 0.000179 0.000278 0.000416
2025-04-27 7.876411e-06 0.000024 0.000054 0.000105 0.000182 0.000287 0.000435
2025-05-04 6.294756e-06 0.000022 0.000052 0.000104 0.000185 0.000297 0.000457
2025-05-11 5.670264e-06 0.000021 0.000053 0.000109 0.000196 0.000319 0.000494
2025-05-18 4.714331e-06 0.000020 0.000051 0.000109 0.000202 0.000332 0.000521
2025-05-25 3.412676e-06 0.000017 0.000047 0.000105 0.000199 0.000335 0.000533
2025-06-01 2.608226e-06 0.000015 0.000045 0.000104 0.000201 0.000343 0.000552
2025-06-08 2.033063e-06 0.000014 0.000043 0.000103 0.000204 0.000353 0.000575
2025-06-15 1.648526e-06 0.000013 0.000043 0.000104 0.000210 0.000367 0.000602
2025-06-22 1.225406e-06 0.000012 0.000041 0.000103 0.000212 0.000376 0.000623
2025-06-29 8.354027e-07 0.000010 0.000038 0.000101 0.000211 0.000380 0.000637
2025-07-06 6.917045e-07 0.000010 0.000038 0.000103 0.000219 0.000397 0.000670
2025-07-13 4.091259e-07 0.000008 0.000035 0.000099 0.000216 0.000398 0.000678